Herald.com | 12/23/2005 | Sharon's Stress Level

Ariel Sharon's doctors have advised him to try to reduce the stress in his life. That's a good one.

Let's see: Not only is the Israeli prime minister starting a new political party and running a campaign for elections coming in less than 100 days, but he has the kind of job that most of us get palpitations just thinking about.

While world leaders worry about how to answer Iran's efforts to build a nuclear bomb, the 77-year-old Sharon, who just left the hospital after suffering a mild stroke, knows exactly what Iran would like to do with a bomb if it had one. Sharon knows many in the region nodded in agreement when Iran's president said Israel should be ``wiped off the map.''

Iran is just one of the many matters on Sharon's presumably sharp mind. The man who has been told to cut back on stress has to worry about another election besides his own. The Islamic group Hamas, whose charter calls for the destruction of Israel, and whose members are champions in the competitive field of killing Israeli civilians in suicide bombings, is moving up in the Palestinian polls. When Palestinians elect a new parliament early next year, there is a real possibility that they could choose an organization whose reason for being is not just taking over what is widely known as the Occupied Territories, but bringing an end to the state of Israel.

New party
Despite the lull in news reports, Israel is still facing attempted suicide bombings on a regular basis, and Palestinian militants are repeatedly launching missiles across the border into Israeli cities. But Sharon's doctors say he should ease off the bagels and cut back on stress.

That, of course, is reason for the entire Israeli public to check its blood pressure. That's because now everyone is thinking the thought that was too frightening to contemplate just a few days ago.

What would happen if Sharon suddenly died?
Israel is a democracy. That means there are institutions and mechanisms in place to replace a sitting head of government. But Sharon has just decimated his old Likud party to form the new Kadima. The new head of what's left of Likud is Sharon's old nemesis, Benjamin Netanyahu. And the former leader of the rival Labor party, 82-year-old Shimon Peres, is now also with Kadima. The new party has no rules, no membership list, no platform. The party, let's face it, is all about Sharon.

Netanyahu hopes that a weakened, faltering, or dead Sharon would mean the prime minister's office for him. But Netanyahu's Likud is third in the polls, trailing Sharon and Labor's new leader Amir Peretz. Kadima was topping the polls before the stroke and is showing even stronger numbers now. That means that Israeli voters want what Sharon offers. It means that, in Sharon's absence, the Israeli public will look for a leader offering the two elements of Sharon's new political persona: the prospects of a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the vow to reach that solution without diminishing Israel's strength.

A real chance to achieve peace with strength and security: That's what Sharon means to Israelis. And that's what Israelis want.

Two-state solution

Once upon a time, Sharon was the champion of Israeli settlers and of those unwilling to give an inch to the Palestinians. No more. Sharon knows that to survive, Israel will have to live side by side with a Palestinian state. If it holds on to the Territories, Israel will cease to be a democracy.
Acceptance of a Palestinian state used to be the province of the Israeli left. But it is now in the undisputed mainstream of Israeli politics. Israelis -- not unlike most Palestinians -- see the two-state-solution as the new Promised Land. When (not if) the two sides agree on the borders, there will be peace -- at least with some of the Arab world. In the meantime, there are Iran, Hamas, Syria, Islamic Jihad, suicide bombers, missiles and elections. Not even Moses could handle that much pressure. But maybe Sharon -- and the stressed-out Israeli voters -- can pull it off.

Frida Ghitis writes about world affairs.