What Israel Needs (Arab Prosperity)

Miami Herald 4/22/05

Arab prosperity urgently needed BY FRIDA GHITIS

Can Israel become one of the world's most prosperous economies? Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seldom at a loss for words, has just declared that Israel will have the strongest economic growth in the West over the next couple of years. His goal, he said, is to create the economic conditions to make Israel's standard of living among the world's top 10 in the coming decade.

Perhaps Netanyahu, with his acknowledged political ambitions, can bring about this Holy Land miracle. But what Israel really needs is prosperity to take hold among its neighboring Arab countries.

Israelis should fervently wish for the stagnant economies of the Middle East to prosper; for well-being to reign among their former and current Arab enemies, and for unstable, political pressure-cookers in the region to become free and thriving societies. This wish would not represent some sort of altruistic, New Age or Biblical Age sign of spiritual sacrifice. No. Arab prosperity is the most urgent need Israel has today.

A wealthy nation

Consider the situation: Israel finds itself surrounded by economies that cannot provide jobs for millions of young and energetic individuals. Cross the border from Israel into Egypt, Jordan or Syria, and the standard of living drops precipitously. Per-capita income in Israel approaches $20,000 per year, depending on how it is calculated. That places it well in the range of wealthy nations, comparable to that of Greece, Spain or Portugal. By contrast, Egypt, Jordan and Syria have incomes well below $5,000.
Incomes in the Palestinian Territories amount to a fraction of that.

The enormous disparity is not only a dangerous irritant, creating resentment in the region, but it also acts as an accelerant to the so-called ''demographic time bomb,'' one of the greatest threats Israel faces today.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon decided to pull out of the occupied Gaza strip in large part because the demographic threat became inescapable. Palestinians have much higher birth rates than Israelis. If Israel continues to hold on to the territories, Jews risk becoming a minority in their own land. And, as long as all the jobs remain in Israel, Palestinians, seething in their impoverished neighborhoods, with or without statehood, will demand the right to -- at the very least -- work in Israel.

But what if suddenly Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and other Arab countries become thriving, prosperous, democratic societies, with well-educated and skilled professionals competing for interesting, well-paying and abundant jobs? Israel would become just another well-off country. And if a Palestinian State, too, became a stable, democratic nation, free of government corruption, prosperity would flourish there, too, with enormous benefits for every country in the area. With regional development, Palestinians and other Arabs would find opportunities to work in different parts of the Middle East. The demands for a return to Israel proper from exiled Palestinians would be eased by the attractiveness of other possibilities for a good life, making a compromise on the issue much more likely. In the midst of these flourishing societies, birth rates, now far higher in virtually all Arab lands than in Israel, would surely drop, and the potential for violent conflict would fade.

Political reforms

Back to reality. This vision of regional bliss barely qualifies today as a mirage in the dry desert. Some argue -- incorrectly -- that peace between Israelis and Palestinians is a prerequisite to real change in the Middle East. Economic and political reforms can, should and are being pushed by idealists in many Arab countries, even as the peace process struggles to get underway.

In Israel, Netanyahu has surprised even his critics with some bold and effective reforms to the economy. Perhaps, in this original land of miracles, Israel will dazzle the doubters and rise to the top echelons of economic success. The government has a duty to try. But what Israelis, Palestinians and all the people of the Middle East really need is prosperity, freedom and well-being for Israelis and Arabs alike.

Frida Ghitis, a television journalist for 20 years, writes about world affairs